Baseball is certainly our favorite sport here at ScoreMetrics. You don’t need to look any further than our logo to get a hint of that.
But why do we consider MLB to provide the best sports trading opportunities out of all of the major leagues? Why have our baseball systems been the most profitable ones in our portfolio (with over 200% ROI last season)? Why is it one of the best places to start digging into if you want to start treating sports betting as an investment?
Let’s take a look at some of the magic behind all of that.
Spotting opportunities from large samples
The MLB season has more than twice the amount of games compared to any of the other major sports. This allows us to work with a huge set of data and provides us with plenty of trading opportunities in a liquid market that is full of dumb money.
Besides the incredible amount of games each year, baseball was the first major sport to start utilizing advanced analytics, and the metrics by which we evaluate teams and players right now are definitely more progressive than in other sports.
This allows us to go really deep in our research for profitable patterns. To make it into a ScoreMetrics sports trading system, a pattern needs to have been profitable for a long period of time (optimally for at least 10 years).
As we concluded in our article on investing in streaks in baseball;
“Throughout our years of experience and research in finding sports investment systems that produce high returns year after year, one constant theme has prevailed: Systems that have a simple hypothesis and broad parameters always end up failing. We’ve even written about some of our failed experiments, which you can read about here and here.”
It’s much easier to find those very specific profitable patterns when there is more data available.
Unique circumstances to take into account
Baseball also offers us many unique variables that can be combined with the large data sets we were talking about earlier.
Perhaps the most interesting one of these variables is the weather. Unlike in indoor sports, the weather can have drastic effects on MLB games. For example, investors can find interesting opportunities when it winds during games:
”With the wind speed at 0-5 MPH, 8.73 runs are scored on average in an MLB game. There’s a drastic change when winds get strong.
At 16-20 MPH, the scoring average goes up to 9.72 runs per game.
And when it really blows like crazy at more than 20 MPH, we get to 10.14 runs scored per game on average.
There has been an edge for long-term investors in the two aforementioned situations. With the wind blowing at 16-20 MPH, games have gone over 53% of the time since 2005. And at 20+ MPH, the rate of games going over is at 54.9%.
Besides taking a look at the weather conditions before games, investors should realize that wind affects ballparks differently. Experienced baseball investors know that the wind hits Wrigley Field the hardest.”
The sun also affects pitchers, hitters and outfielders in various ways. We wrote about an interesting example in our article on investment opportunities in daytime baseball games:
”At times, teams have clear differences in their day-game records compared to their overall performance. For example, SB Nation’s Wendy Thurm discovered back in 2012 that the Cleveland Indians had the worst daytime record of any team in baseball between 2008 and 2012 at .371. Overall, they had a .436 winning percentage for the same period of time. With a sample of 256 games to back it up, there was clearly something that put the Indians at a disadvantage in day-games.”
Investors can also consider the effects of air pressure, temperature and humidity, which all affect how the ball carries after a hit.
With a huge amount of data available and all of these factors to consider, the baseball market really favors sports traders who are willing to do a lot of research.
And we’ve certainly done just that, with our baseball systems generating more than 200% ROI last season. Are you ready to join the ride for this MLB season?
To prepare for the return of sports and to learn everything you need to know about smart investing in the sports betting market, check out our head trader John Todora’s new book – “Zero Correlation Investing – The Score Metrics Secret”. It’s currently on sale for a limited time, so go get yours now!
The ScoreMetrics Lab is the engine that runs the Sports Trading System operation, consisting of a team of researchers and writers who are constantly testing and retesting algorithms. They work hand in hand with our Head Trader and Creator of ScoreMetrics, John Todora to help find new breakthroughs and develop new systems.