The 2020 NFL season is set to kick off on the 10th of September with the defending champions Kansas City Chiefs opening at home against the Houston Texans. Unless the COVID-19 pandemic affects the schedule at a later point, we should see a normal amount of football games being played this season.
Today the ScoreMetrics Lab takes a look at the current odds for teams to win the Super Bowl. We will also discuss the viability of investing in this market from a sports trader’s perspective.
Odds to win the 2021 Super Bowl
The Super Bowl is scheduled to be played on February 7, 2021 in Tampa, Florida. Here are the current odds for each time to lift the Lombardi Trophy at the end of the season (from DraftKings, as of July 10):
Kansas City Chiefs
San Francisco 49ers
New Orleans Saints
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New England Patriots
Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Rams
Los Angeles Chargers
Las Vegas Raiders
New York Giants
New York Jets
The top of the order has not changed a lot since we covered NFL futures before the COVID-19 pandemic. The Chiefs are still the favorite (if only slightly) to win it all for a second year in a row, with the Ravens right behind them and last year’s Super Bowl runners up, the 49ers, sitting at third spot.
The Buccaneers have seen their odds drastically change after signing Tom Brady. The 42-year-old superstar is still a valuable asset, and the Bucs’ Super Bowl odds jumped from +5000 to +1400 after the signing. Tampa are now seen as the fifth most likely candidate for the trophy by the bookmakers.
The Patriots’ odds are actually not that much higher than they were early this year after losing Brady, with bookmakers being optimistic about the Cam Newton signing. Having gotten +1400 early this year, the Pats are now at +1700 to win the Super Bowl.
How have pre-season investments in Super Bowl futures performed historically?
In the article on Super Bowl futures that we wrote earlier this year, we talked about how an investment in the pre-season favorite would have performed for the last ten seasons:
”The ScoreMetrics labs discovered that during the last ten seasons, the bookmakers’ preseason favorite has gone on to win the Super Bowl only twice (the New England Patriots in 2016 and 2018). It’s safe to say that investing in just the favorite is a risky affair.
Still, the Patriots were +600 before the season on both of those occasions, so in that sense you could make a case for putting your money on the favorite. An investment of $1k per year on the favorite would have been lost eight times, but those two winning years would have returned a total of $14k, leaving a profit of $4k.”
We also presented how an investment in the top three favorites would have fared during that same period of time. This would have left us with five winning seasons out of ten, with 30k$ invested and with a return of 34.7k$.
So, 40% ROI for the first case and 19% ROI for the second. Not exactly something to be cheering about, considering that generating these returns would have taken ten years and that a single miss more during that period would have turned these investments into negatives.
For reference, our football trading system generated an ROI of 168% last year alone, obviously with a much higher frequency of trades. It’s safe to say that the futures investments cases above do not fit our criteria for good investments.
Will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs lift the Lombardi Trophy again this season? We can’t wait to find out, and we’re keeping our fingers crossed for a full football season this year.
Sports are back, and so are we. Our systems will be fully tuned for the upcoming season and we will be bringing you loads of football content along the way.
To prepare for the return of sports and to learn everything you need to know about smart investing in the sports betting market, check out our head trader John Todora’s new book – “Zero Correlation Investing – The Score Metrics Secret”. It’s currently on sale for a limited time, so go get yours now!
The ScoreMetrics Lab is the engine that runs the Sports Trading System operation, consisting of a team of researchers and writers who are constantly testing and retesting algorithms. They work hand in hand with our Head Trader and Creator of ScoreMetrics, John Todora to help find new breakthroughs and develop new systems.