The Sports Trader: I just gave you free money

Hey guys,

I hope you are all doing well out there and enjoyed the draft this weekend.  For those of you that watched, you were not alone.  Record numbers of people tuned in to watch all three rounds.  

For those of you that follow along here, I gave you guys some free investments on Thursday and they paid off big.  I can proudly say that if you followed my advice you made around 65% on your money in just a few hours.  I know I sent out a quick note on Friday talking about our success, but I wanted to go into a little more detail today. Again, the idea is that every time you open one of these emails I try to teach you something new, so we are going to tear apart what went right and why it worked so well for us.

Well it sure was nice watching some sports again wasn’t it?

For those of you that missed out on the opportunity to watch some of the NFL draft over the weekend…what the heck were you actually doing?  Most of us are on lockdown and didn’t have much to do, and the draft has grown so much over the last few years that it has really become must see TV anyway.  

It’s actually really cool to see something that you have been a fan of for so long become this big.  As a kid I grew up loving the NFL draft, comic books and sports analytics.  I was obviously way before my time, but  hey, now I can tell everyone “I told you so!”

The NFL Draft reached an amazing record 55 million viewers over three days while being featured on ABC, ESPN, NFL Network, ESPN Deportes and several different digital channels. 

In fact, each day of the 2020 NFL draft set records, the league said, stating that an average audience of more than 15.6 million viewers watched Round 1 on Thursday, up an incredible 37% over 2019. 

More than 8.2 million watched Rounds 2 and 3 on Friday, up 40% over 2019, and Saturday’s coverage, which was held at noon and covered Rounds 4-7, averaged more than 4.2 million viewers, up 32% over 2019.

Just unreal numbers, and it shows how starved Americans are for sports.  I loved the show, although I really think we could have done without some of the doom and gloom they tried to attach to each man drafted.  A little too “reality show” for my tastes.  It’s an amazing moment filled with inspiration and joy, and we get to watch it.  That should be enough.

How the draft made you money and why I gave it to you for free. 

Well, a LOT of people read my newsletter, and among the most popular questions I get is, “What is Sports Trading?”  Well the answer to that is simple, yet complicated.  It’s simple in that I trade sports like a lot of people trade stocks.  

It’s complicated in that I put a lot of work into it.  Trading stocks and investing in businesses is about understanding the markets that you are investing in and the patterns inside those markets.  And I am not talking about short term trends that last a few months or a few years.  I’m talking about trends that last so long that they become patterns that go back as far as 10, 15 or even 20 years.  

The idea isn’t to gamble, it’s to invest in patterns that give you a high probability of achieving profits.  

So what I did was build a system around the draft.  I did so by developing ten models, based on backtested historical data, and then I used those systems (which were based on patterns we found) to invest.  

This is what I recommended on Thursday

Total Wide Receivers Drafted in First Round

Over 5.5 (-150)     –    3 unit investment
Under 5.5 (+115)

80% of models show that there will be 6 or less receivers chosen in the first round
-150 odds equates to 59.88%

What happened?  That investment was a winner.  

Jeff Okudah Draft Position
Over 4.5 (-105)
Under 4.5 (-135)     –    3 unit investment  

100% of models show that Okudah will be chosen #3 overall, by the Detroit Lions (As long as they do not trade the pick away)
-135 odds equates to 57.47%

What happened?  That investment was a winner.  

Total SEC Players Drafted in First Round 

Over 15.5 (+165)
Under 15.5 (-200)     –    2 unit investment 

80% of all models show less than 16 SEC players drafted in the first round
-200 odds equates to 66.67%

What happened?  That investment was a winner.  

Total Offensive Players First Round 

Over 16.5 (-160)      –    2 unit investment
Under 16.5 (+120)

70% of all models show less than 17 offensive players drafted in the first round
-160 odds equates to 61.35%

What happened?  That investment was a winner.  

So, all in all, my systems told us to make 4 plays, and in those 4 plays we nailed 4 winners.  Those 4 winners brought us home 64.7% returns in four hours, based off the prices/odds you see above.  

Now, for those of you that are gamblers, you would not be happy with this.  There were bigger odds out there that paid a lot more than the ones that my systems gave us, but showed profit, and those larger odds plays showed losses.  That is the difference in what I do and what a gambler does.  

All in all, it was a great night for me and hopefully for you.  So what do you owe me for the picks? Nothing at all, but one day I might call in a favor.  =)

For now, stay well, take care of the people you love and remember; You can’t be a 1%er if you think like the other 99%,

 The Sports Trader

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