I am going to tell you a secret that a lot of people don’t really know, and it’s one of the keys to how we create great Sports Trading systems.
You see, we understand that the bookmaker makes odds not to take you money, but to create an even contest. The idea is that, in making a game, match or fight even in the odds or spread, that they will force the public to distribute their bets evenly. This gives the bookmaker a chance to make money from the vig, or as I like to call it, the juice.
But it doesn’t always work out that way. In today’s digital age, we can find data that actually shows us where the public money is, and it’s something I study each week, trying to find any edge I can. What I found is astounding this week, and I thought I would share it with you.
A Money % is the percentage of money that is placed on a certain team in a game.
Most Lopsided Money %’s
# of Bets
One of the craziest Money %’s that I found is that Tennessee is getting 99% of the public money against Minnesota. Now, the Vikings have not played well, but they are not a team without talent, and they have a quarterback who, historically, starts the season slow.
That game started even and is now a 2.5 point game, and I am thinking that everyone thinks that line is still just too low. I would take a look at that game and see if you can get a spread at Tennessee -2.5 or less and take them.
Denver is another mystery to me. Going into a game against a Tom Brady led Tampa Bay team without their starting QB, their starting WR and one of their two stud RBs, definitely puts Denver in a bad spot.
With all the public money on Denver the line should have moved towards Tampa, but for some reason didn’t. Injuries played a factor here for sure. I would stay away from this game because something doesn’t feel right.
Arizona takes on Detroit this week, and they have gained the early rep as the Cinderella team this year. The reason is simple actually: Kyler Murray. The problem here is that the line moved a lot because of all the public action, going from a 2.5 point spread open to a 5.5 point spread. Again, I hate early season action because there are just too many variables to work out, but right now, it’s hard to bet against Arizona.
I saved the best game for last because the Baltimore Ravens are hosting the defending champs this week, and the public absolutely LOVES the Ravens right now. That line opened at 2.5 and is now 3.5. It really is the battle of the two baddest men at the QB position, but I can’t help but think that any time you give Pat Mahomes and KC points, you should take them.
The first few weeks of the football market are always slow for the amount of trades we get, but so far, with minimal action and risk, we are up around +10% on our portfolio value.
Because of the way college football is staggered this year, because of COVID, this market season has the potential to be the best we have ever had because the season will be extended further than ever before. I can hear cash bells in my head already.
Join now, and we will send you emails and text alerts so you can get all the Sports Trades we make in this year’s football seasonal market, no matter how long it runs on for.