The Super Bowl 2021 Futures Are Out!

Written by Miikka Paakkinen of the ScoreMetrics Lab

We’re only a few days removed from the Kansas City Chiefs winning Super Bowl 54, but the ScoreMetrics labs is already looking into the future. More specifically, we have our eyes on next season’s NFL futures market and the possible Super Bowl winner.

If you’re new to futures investments in sports, take a look at this newsletter article that we published back in January to learn more.

In today’s article we will inform you of the current odds for Super Bowl LV. We’ll also look at the past performance of investing in the preseason favorite and play around with the idea of one diversified investment case.

Read on to see what we discovered. 

Super Bowl 55 odds

Here’s what the Caesars Sportsbook is offering us for the Super Bowl LV winner:

TeamOdds
Kansas City Chiefs+600 
Baltimore Ravens+700 
San Francisco 49ers+900 
Dallas Cowboys+1200 
New Orleans Saints+1200 
New England Patriots+1400 
Seattle Seahawks+1600 
Green Bay Packers+1800 
Pittsburgh Steelers+1800 
Chicago Bears+2500 
Cleveland Browns+2500 
Philadelphia Eagles+2500 
Minnesota Vikings+2500 
Los Angeles Rams+2800 
Tennessee Titans+2800 
Buffalo Bills+3000 
Los Angeles Chargers+3000 
Raiders+3000 
Houston Texans+3500 
Atlanta Falcons+4000 
Denver Broncos+5000 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers+5000 
Indianapolis Colts+5000 
Arizona Cardinals+6000 
Detroit Lions+6000 
New York Jets+7500 
Carolina Panthers+7500 
Cincinnati Bengals+10000 
Miami Dolphins+10000 
New York Giants+10000 
Jacksonville Jaguars+10000 
Washington Redskins+20000 

These odds are from February the 5th, 2020. 

Fresh off of winning in Miami, the Kansas City Chiefs are currently the favorite to repeat the deed next year. But is it a good idea to put your money down on the favorite? 

Let’s explore. 

Historical performance

The ScoreMetrics labs discovered that during the last ten seasons, the bookmakers’ preseason favorite has gone on to win the Super Bowl only twice (the New England Patriots in 2016 and 2018). It’s safe to say that investing in just the favorite is a risky affair. 

Still, the Patriots were +600 before the season on both of those occasions, so in that sense you could make a case for putting your money on the favorite. An investment of $1k per year on the favorite would have been lost eight times, but those two winning years would have returned a total of $14k, leaving a profit of $4k. 

Most years though, you’re looking at lower odds than +600 for the bookmakers’ favorite.

The Chiefs are now at that number, so is this a good investment opportunity? We’ll let you decide, but this isn’t quite enough to fit the ScoreMetrics criteria for a solid investment. 

How about diversifying your investments?

Now, let’s try a little game of diversification and do some backtesting on an investment hypothesis. What if we would invest an equal amount in the top three preseason favorites? What would that have looked like if we’d done that for the past ten seasons?

In this scenario, we would have had a winning investment in five of the last ten seasons:

YearWinnerOdds
2019Kansas City Chiefs+600
2018New England Patriots+600
2016New England Patriots+600
2014New England Patriots+650
2013Seattle Seahawks+800

Would this have been a winner for us when we add it all up? Let’s again say that we put down $1k on each of our investments. Three investments per season makes $3k per year, and ten seasons leaves the total investment at $30k. 

With the odds listed above, our total returns from the winning investments would have been at $35.7k. So, we’re looking at a 20% ROI. That’s ok but obviously being down $3k in half of the seasons is hard and calls for some long-term commitment and bankroll management. 

Good investment? Maybe not, but we’d need to dig deeper and crunch the numbers some more before making conclusions. 

Keep in mind as well that the historical odds used here are from just before the season started. The odds we’re looking at now for Super Bowl 55 are a reflection of what bookmakers currently think of the teams. They might look different after all the offseason moves have been made. And they obviously change throughout the season. 

So, what makes for a good investment then? To learn how to build your own sports investment systems, we always recommend John Todora’s new book, “Zero Correlation Investing – The Score Metrics Secret”, which is on sale for a limited time now. Go get yours before the deal runs out! 

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