Baseball is back with a 60-game season. How has this affected the odds to win the World Series this year? Who are the favorites, and how should a smart investor approach the futures market?
Read on to find out.
MLB odds to win the 2020 World Series
Here are the odds for each team winning the 2020 World Series (as of July 10, from DraftKings). For comparison, we’ve also attached the odds each team was getting when we wrote about MLB futures early this year.
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
New York Mets
St. Louis Cardinals
Chicago White Sox
Los Angeles Angels
Boston Red Sox
San Diego Padres
Toronto Blue Jays
San Francisco Giants
Kansas City Royals
Investors should note that even though the regular season is significantly shortened, the playoffs will be played in a normal format.
The Dodgers are now favorites to lift the trophy at the end of the season, having signed Mookie Betts since we last wrote about MLB team futures. The Yankees are a close second. Both clubs have plenty of depth in their rosters and definitely look like the strongest candidates on paper.
The shortening of the season has seen dramatic changes in the odds for some of the middle of the pack teams. Just look at the Reds going from +5000 to +2500, and the White Sox from +4000 to +2500.
How should investors approach the 60-game 2020 MLB season?
When we covered the return of the MLB season, here’s what we said about the implications for sports traders:
“Baseball is a game of large sample sizes, which makes it optimal for sports trading systems. A season that’s less than a third of a normal one will make things more unpredictable. It will be harder than normal to find profitable patterns in the market and it’s quite likely that we will be seeing some surprising teams make or miss the playoffs this year.”
We also concluded that it will be hard to predict who the shortened season will favour. Will it be the teams with depth, or is this the time to take swings at the underdogs?
In this unpredictable environment, two things that we constantly preach here at the ScoreMetrics Lab are as important as ever: Diversifying your investments and not tying too much of your capital to risky futures markets.
If you are executing multiple sports trading systems, you will be conducting tens or even hundreds of trades during a season. Disciplined bankroll management and careful unit allocation are key in making sure that the systems return sustainable profits, while throwing a big chunk of money relative to your overall investment bankroll on futures can easily wipe away those hard-earned dollars.
Here’s what we wrote about diversification in MLB team futures markets when we covered World Series futures earlier this year:
”The bookmakers’ preseason favorite in January or February has gone on to win the World Series only once during the last ten seasons. The 2016 Chicago Cubs did it, but in each of the other seasons, an investment in the favorite would have vanished into thin air.
So, should we conclude that investing in MLB futures is not worth our time? Not so fast.
Just like in the stock market, one can diversify and make less riskier investments in sports.
While a single investment in the Yankees winning it all this season looks like a bad move when looking at historical data, creating a portfolio of investments might prove fruitful.
For example, what would it look like if we picked five teams whose chances we like?
We could construct a diversified investment where we put money down on each of the clubs and return a profit no matter which one out of the five ends up winning the title.”
With the current odds, it is quite easy to come up with multi-team investment portfolios that return solid profits if any of the teams in the portfolios end up winning the title.
To prepare for the return of sports and to learn everything you need to know about smart investing in the sports betting market, check out our head trader John Todora’s new book – “Zero Correlation Investing – The Score Metrics Secret”. It’s currently on sale for a limited time, so go get yours now!
The ScoreMetrics Lab is the engine that runs the Sports Trading System operation, consisting of a team of researchers and writers who are constantly testing and retesting algorithms. They work hand in hand with our Head Trader and Creator of ScoreMetrics, John Todora to help find new breakthroughs and develop new systems.