With Major League Baseball underway, the ScoreMetrics Lab offers a helping hand by exploring the viability of investing in some of the game’s top pitchers.
This isn’t the first time we’re talking about investing in players instead of teams. You can read what we wrote about the Los Angeles Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard as an investment case here.
For this exercise, we look at the top four starting pitchers with the most wins from last season, all playing for marquee franchises of the game.
Houston’s Justin Verlander racked up a league-leading 21 wins in 2019 during the regular season. He was followed by his former teammate Gerrit Cole (who is throwing for the New York Yankees in 2020) with 20 W’s. Boston’s Eduardo Rodríguez had 19, while Domingo Germán got 18 for the Yankees. Germán shared the 4th spot on the list with Zack Greinke and Stephen Strasburg.
All four players obviously had successful seasons, but would it have made sense to invest in their teams winning when they started? Keep on reading to find out.
Small gains for the Astros duo
For this research, we backtracked what would have happened if we would’ve invested $100 on each pitcher’s team winning when they started. Let’s begin with Verlander’s case.
Intuition might tell you that investing in the pitcher with the most wins in a season would provide value, but when we look at the table below, we see very small returns.
| Home Team | Visitor Team | Home Score | Visitor Score | Event Date | Odds | Result | Units Won |
| Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros | 3 | 6 | 28/09/2019 | -423 | W | $23,60 |
| Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 13 | 5 | 22/09/2019 | -521 | W | $19,20 |
| Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 4 | 1 | 17/09/2019 | -326 | W | $30,70 |
| Houston Astros | Oakland Athletics | 2 | 3 | 12/09/2019 | -278 | L | -$100,00 |
| Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 2 | 1 | 07/09/2019 | -381 | W | $26,20 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Houston Astros | 0 | 2 | 01/09/2019 | -265 | W | $37,70 |
| Houston Astros | Tampa Bay Rays | 15 | 1 | 27/08/2019 | -190 | W | $52,60 |
| Houston Astros | Detroit Tigers | 1 | 2 | 21/08/2019 | -518 | L | -$100,00 |
| Oakland Athletics | Houston Astros | 3 | 2 | 16/08/2019 | -187 | L | -$100,00 |
| Baltimore Orioles | Houston Astros | 8 | 7 | 11/08/2019 | -462 | L | -$100,00 |
| Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 3 | 1 | 04/08/2019 | -419 | W | $23,90 |
| Cleveland Indians | Houston Astros | 0 | 2 | 30/07/2019 | -138 | W | $72,50 |
| Houston Astros | Oakland Athletics | 4 | 2 | 24/07/2019 | -206 | W | $48,50 |
| Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 4 | 3 | 19/07/2019 | -209 | W | $47,80 |
| Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 4 | 12 | 14/07/2019 | -205 | W | $48,80 |
| Houston Astros | Los Angeles Angels | 4 | 5 | 05/07/2019 | -232 | L | -$100,00 |
| Houston Astros | Seattle Mariners | 6 | 5 | 29/06/2019 | -316 | W | $31,60 |
| New York Yankees | Houston Astros | 4 | 9 | 23/06/2019 | -127 | W | $78,70 |
| Cincinnati Reds | Houston Astros | 4 | 3 | 18/06/2019 | -170 | L | -$100,00 |
| Houston Astros | Milwaukee Brewers | 3 | 6 | 12/06/2019 | -135 | L | -$100,00 |
| Seattle Mariners | Houston Astros | 7 | 8 | 06/06/2019 | -181 | W | $55,20 |
| Oakland Athletics | Houston Astros | 1 | 5 | 01/06/2019 | -135 | W | $74,10 |
| Houston Astros | Boston Red Sox | 1 | 4 | 26/05/2019 | -165 | L | -$100,00 |
| Houston Astros | Chicago White Sox | 5 | 1 | 21/05/2019 | -329 | W | $30,40 |
| Detroit Tigers | Houston Astros | 1 | 5 | 15/05/2019 | -362 | W | $27,60 |
| Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 3 | 0 | 10/05/2019 | -254 | W | $39,40 |
| Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros | 4 | 10 | 05/05/2019 | -215 | W | $46,50 |
| Minnesota Twins | Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 29/04/2019 | -170 | L | -$100,00 |
| Houston Astros | Minnesota Twins | 7 | 1 | 24/04/2019 | -234 | W | $42,70 |
| Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 2 | 7 | 19/04/2019 | -214 | W | $46,70 |
| Seattle Mariners | Houston Astros | 1 | 3 | 13/04/2019 | -191 | W | $52,40 |
| Houston Astros | New York Yankees | 4 | 3 | 08/04/2019 | -150 | W | $66,70 |
| Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 6 | 4 | 02/04/2019 | -221 | L | -$100,00 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Houston Astros | 1 | 5 | 28/03/2019 | -126 | W | $79,40 |
| $102,90 |
Verlander’s Astros won 70.6% of the games he started, but the ROI for our investment is a measly 3% for a total of $3400 invested. Looking at the odds, you’ll see that bookmakers favored Houston in each of Verlander’s starts last season. That meant a low return for us on each of his wins, which in turn makes the investment very risky and probably not very profitable in the long run.
Gerrit Cole, Verlander’s teammate last year, had a similar looking season. The Astros were the favorite in each of his 33 starts and won 78.8% of those games. Our investment to Cole would have been $3300 and our return $392.90 (11.9% ROI). Better than Verlander, but still a very low number.
Rodríguez and Germán return more value
Moving on to Boston, let’s look at how Eduardo Rodríguez fared.
| Home Team | Visitor Team | Home Score | Visitor Score | Event Date | Odds | Result | Units Won |
| Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 5 | 4 | 29/09/2019 | -292 | W | $34,20 |
| Texas Rangers | Boston Red Sox | 10 | 12 | 24/09/2019 | -220 | W | $45,50 |
| Boston Red Sox | San Francisco Giants | 5 | 4 | 19/09/2019 | -156 | W | $64,10 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | Boston Red Sox | 1 | 2 | 14/09/2019 | 110 | W | $110,00 |
| Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | 0 | 5 | 09/09/2019 | 106 | L | -$100,00 |
| Boston Red Sox | Minnesota Twins | 6 | 2 | 04/09/2019 | -154 | W | $64,90 |
| Colorado Rockies | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 7 | 28/08/2019 | -181 | W | $55,20 |
| San Diego Padres | Boston Red Sox | 0 | 11 | 23/08/2019 | -118 | W | $84,70 |
| Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 4 | 0 | 17/08/2019 | -314 | W | $31,80 |
| Cleveland Indians | Boston Red Sox | 6 | 5 | 12/08/2019 | -120 | L | -$100,00 |
| New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 2 | 02/08/2019 | 117 | L | -$100,00 |
| Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | 9 | 5 | 27/07/2019 | -140 | W | $71,40 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 9 | 22/07/2019 | -120 | W | $83,30 |
| Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | 5 | 4 | 17/07/2019 | -251 | W | $39,80 |
| Boston Red Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | 8 | 1 | 12/07/2019 | -112 | W | $89,30 |
| Detroit Tigers | Boston Red Sox | 6 | 9 | 05/07/2019 | -229 | W | $43,70 |
| Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | 8 | 12 | 30/06/2019 | -114 | L | -$100,00 |
| Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | 6 | 5 | 24/06/2019 | -168 | W | $59,50 |
| Minnesota Twins | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 9 | 19/06/2019 | 104 | W | $104,00 |
| Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | 2 | 13 | 14/06/2019 | -231 | W | $43,30 |
| Boston Red Sox | Tampa Bay Rays | 1 | 6 | 09/06/2019 | 119 | L | -$100,00 |
| Kansas City Royals | Boston Red Sox | 3 | 8 | 04/06/2019 | -201 | W | $49,80 |
| Houston Astros | Boston Red Sox | 1 | 4 | 26/05/2019 | 152 | W | $152,00 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Boston Red Sox | 10 | 3 | 21/05/2019 | -141 | L | -$100,00 |
| Boston Red Sox | Colorado Rockies | 6 | 5 | 15/05/2019 | -140 | W | $71,40 |
| Boston Red Sox | Seattle Mariners | 14 | 1 | 10/05/2019 | -200 | W | $50,00 |
| Chicago White Sox | Boston Red Sox | 2 | 15 | 04/05/2019 | -171 | W | $58,50 |
| Boston Red Sox | Oakland Athletics | 9 | 4 | 29/04/2019 | -133 | W | $75,20 |
| Boston Red Sox | Detroit Tigers | 11 | 4 | 24/04/2019 | -214 | W | $46,70 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 6 | 19/04/2019 | -113 | W | $88,50 |
| Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 6 | 4 | 12/04/2019 | -249 | W | $40,20 |
| Oakland Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 7 | 3 | 04/04/2019 | -116 | L | -$100,00 |
| Seattle Mariners | Boston Red Sox | 6 | 5 | 30/03/2019 | -162 | L | -$100,00 |
| $857,00 |
That’s 33 games started and Boston winning 75.8% of them. Our $3300 investment has a 26% ROI. So, Cole had a higher winning percentage, but Rodríguez would’ve still returned over twice the amount that we got for Cole in the same amount of games. The reason is easy to spot – the Red Sox were underdogs in some of the games they won, providing us with higher returns.
Finally, how about Domingo Germán?
| Home Team | Visitor Team | Home Score | Visitor Score | Event Date | Odds | Result | Units Won |
| Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | 6 | 1 | 06/09/2019 | -126 | L | -$100,00 |
| New York Yankees | Oakland Athletics | 3 | 3 | 31/08/2019 | -185 | P | $0,00 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | New York Yankees | 1 | 5 | 25/08/2019 | 141 | W | $141,00 |
| Oakland Athletics | New York Yankees | 6 | 2 | 20/08/2019 | -126 | L | -$100,00 |
| New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 8 | 3 | 13/08/2019 | -307 | W | $32,60 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | New York Yankees | 6 | 12 | 08/08/2019 | -178 | W | $56,20 |
| New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 9 | 2 | 03/08/2019 | 113 | W | $113,00 |
| Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | 6 | 9 | 28/07/2019 | 156 | W | $156,00 |
| Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 12 | 14 | 23/07/2019 | -114 | W | $87,70 |
| New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | 6 | 2 | 18/07/2019 | -161 | W | $62,10 |
| New York Yankees | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 0 | 12/07/2019 | -279 | W | $35,80 |
| New York Mets | New York Yankees | 1 | 5 | 03/07/2019 | -138 | W | $72,50 |
| Cleveland Indians | New York Yankees | 5 | 2 | 07/06/2019 | -111 | L | -$100,00 |
| New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 5 | 3 | 01/06/2019 | -128 | W | $78,10 |
| Kansas City Royals | New York Yankees | 8 | 7 | 26/05/2019 | -154 | L | -$100,00 |
| Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 4 | 11 | 21/05/2019 | -250 | W | $40,00 |
| New York Yankees | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 1 | 15/05/2019 | -239 | W | $41,80 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | New York Yankees | 3 | 4 | 10/05/2019 | 155 | W | $155,00 |
| New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 4 | 1 | 05/05/2019 | -131 | W | $76,30 |
| San Francisco Giants | New York Yankees | 5 | 11 | 28/04/2019 | -126 | W | $79,40 |
| Los Angeles Angels | New York Yankees | 5 | 7 | 23/04/2019 | -102 | W | $98,00 |
| New York Yankees | Kansas City Royals | 1 | 6 | 18/04/2019 | -197 | L | -$100,00 |
| Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 3 | 15 | 07/04/2019 | -175 | W | $57,10 |
| New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 3 | 1 | 01/04/2019 | -215 | W | $46,50 |
| $929,10 |
He started the fewest amount of games out of the pack at 24 starts, but the investment would have been by far the best at a 38.7% ROI for $2400 invested. That’s starting to look pretty decent.
Risky returns
So, what should we make of this data?
The investment cases for the Astros duo were clearly weak. Bad odds equaled into small gains with a high risk.
The ones for Rodríguez and Germán looked much more enticing. But swing a couple of the close games where they were underdogs the other way and the returns take significant hits.
In short, the ScoreMetrics Lab would not recommend these investments based on this research. But the data does point us to some potentially interesting directions and further avenues for research.
What if we look at the pitchers with most wins from the last 10 years, would that give us solid evidence to back an investment? How about including ATS and O/U performances, is there something there? Or maybe the best gains just don’t come from the most famous of pitchers and ball clubs?
Certainly a topic to keep an eye on throughout the season!
The ScoreMetrics Lab is the engine that runs the Sports Trading System operation, consisting of a team of researchers and writers who are constantly testing and retesting algorithms. They work hand in hand with our Head Trader and Creator of ScoreMetrics, John Todora to help find new breakthroughs and develop new systems.
