Are there any profits in investing in Houston Rockets this season?

In essence, this article centers on the Houston Rockets, the aim of which is to ascertain the profitability of investing in the team/players in this 2019/2020 NBA season. 

At the ScoreMetrics Lab we are constantly analyzing the profitability of different scenarios and today we are going to discuss the team’s strong points as well as their weaknesses by providing you with facts about the current performance of some of their key players, by reviewing their performance in the past 3 games, analyzing their past playoff performances, and predicting their performance in subsequent games.

Talks about the Beasts: Strength – Offensive Prowess

James Harden

There is no way you can talk about the Houston Rockets and not mention “the beard”, as this guy’s offensive contribution to the team is second to none. James Harden sinks 3pt shots with ease even when tightly defended. Also, over the course of this current 2019/20 league, Harden has led the league as the player with the highest points made, as a matter of fact, out of the 5458 total points for the Rockets, Harden scored 1551 (28%) of those points. 

Consequently, with a player that averages 36.1 PPG (the highest PPG average seen in the last ten plus years) on your team, you know you can rely on his scoring abilities, and that he can give you value for your money. Let us just hope his thigh injury heals quickly as he has not played in their last 2 games because of it.

Russel Westbrook

This 6’3 ft explosive shooting guard has proved to his fans and his team that he is an all-round player, averaging triple doubles (double digits in Scoring, Rebounds and Assists) over parts of his career. His joining the Rockets last season has improved the team’s potentials to a greater extent with his his mid-range shots, ability to drive to the basket, dish out the ball and crash the boards for rebounds.

Westbrook also has also led the the NBA in scoring and is currently averaging 26.0 PPG this season.

Eric Gordon & Other Key Players

This guy is another consistent shooter in the team, he is, in fact, a one-time winner of the NBA 3-point contest, in the year 2017. Gordon has also displayed his shooting prowess by scoring his career-high 50 points in the Rocket’s game against the Utah Jazz on the 27^th of January 2020. Other shooters on the team that are worth staking your money on include Daniel House (one of the best at “catch-and-shoot” in the league), P.J. Tucker (leading the league in corner threes) Clint Capela (offensive rebounds and put-backs), and Ben McLemore (who has made 455 points this season).  

Major Weakness: Defense

Over the years, the Houston Rockets have not been known to be a super-defensive team, however, this season, things have turned a bit better for them with Clint Capel averaging 13.9 and 1.9 rebounds and blocks per game respectively. 

P.J. Tucker is also a beast on defense and has proved himself to be more than capable this season, he was, in fact, just one second-place vote away from being tied with Kawhi Leonard in the all-defensive team ranking in 2019.

In essence, you cannot totally bank on the Houston Rockets’ defense but you cannot totally rule-out the efforts of players such as Capela and Tucker.  

Rocket’s Playoff Performance Over the Years

The 2017/18 Rockets made a franchise record by emerging the first Houston team in history to win 60 or more matches in a regular season, finishing with 65–17. The Rockets have partaken in a total of 52 seasons and advanced to the playoffs in 33 out of these. They have also badged seven division titles, and have emerged as conference champions four different times. They have an overall record of 2,225 wins and 1,991 losses. Now with the current spirit the team is playing with, they will likely advance to the playoffs and encounter the real battles with their counterparts in the east.

So let’s look at the Rockets as an investment.  If you would have invested in the Rockets with the spread up to this point in the year, and placed only $100 on each trade, you would have lost $420.

Home Team	Visitor Team	Home Score	Visitor Score	Event Date	Odds	Result	Units Won
Portland Trail Blazers	Houston Rockets	125	112	1/29/20	-5	L	-100
Utah Jazz	Houston Rockets	117	126	1/27/20	14	W	98
Denver Nuggets	Houston Rockets	117	110	1/26/20	2.5	L	-100
Minnesota Timberwolves	Houston Rockets	124	131	1/24/20	-5.5	W	94.3
Houston Rockets	Denver Nuggets	121	105	1/22/20	-10.5	W	99
Houston Rockets	Oklahoma City Thunder	107	112	1/20/20	-7.5	L	-100
Houston Rockets	Los Angeles Lakers	115	124	1/18/20	-3.5	L	-100
Houston Rockets	Portland Trail Blazers	107	117	1/15/20	-8.5	L	-100
Memphis Grizzlies	Houston Rockets	121	110	1/14/20	-4.5	L	-100
Houston Rockets	Minnesota Timberwolves	139	109	1/11/20	-9.5	W	90.1
Oklahoma City Thunder	Houston Rockets	113	92	1/9/20	-3.5	L	-100
Atlanta Hawks	Houston Rockets	115	122	1/8/20	-7.5	L	-100
Houston Rockets	Philadelphia 76ers	118	108	1/3/20	-4.5	W	99
Houston Rockets	Denver Nuggets	130	104	12/31/19	-6	W	94.3
New Orleans Pelicans	Houston Rockets	127	112	12/29/19	5	L	-100
Houston Rockets	Brooklyn Nets	108	98	12/28/19	-9	W	92.6
Golden State Warriors	Houston Rockets	116	104	12/25/19	-11.5	L	-100
Sacramento Kings	Houston Rockets	104	113	12/23/19	-6	W	92.6
Phoenix Suns	Houston Rockets	125	139	12/21/19	-8.5	W	90.9
Los Angeles Clippers	Houston Rockets	117	122	12/19/19	5	W	98
Houston Rockets	San Antonio Spurs	109	107	12/16/19	-10	L	-100
Houston Rockets	Detroit Pistons	107	115	12/14/19	-7.5	L	-100
Orlando Magic	Houston Rockets	107	130	12/13/19	-6.5	W	92.6
Cleveland Cavaliers	Houston Rockets	110	116	12/11/19	-11.5	L	-100
Houston Rockets	Sacramento Kings	118	119	12/9/19	-12	L	-100
Houston Rockets	Phoenix Suns	115	109	12/7/19	-11.5	L	-100
Toronto Raptors	Houston Rockets	109	119	12/5/19	2	W	96.2
San Antonio Spurs	Houston Rockets	135	133	12/3/19	-7	L	-100
Houston Rockets	Atlanta Hawks	158	111	11/30/19	-14	W	97.1
Houston Rockets	Miami Heat	117	108	11/27/19	-7	W	89.3
Houston Rockets	Dallas Mavericks	123	137	11/24/19	-5.5	L	-100
Los Angeles Clippers	Houston Rockets	122	119	11/22/19	5.5	W	90.9
Denver Nuggets	Houston Rockets	105	95	11/20/19	1	L	-100
Houston Rockets	Portland Trail Blazers	132	108	11/18/19	-7.5	W	95.2
Minnesota Timberwolves	Houston Rockets	105	125	11/16/19	2.5	W	97.1
Houston Rockets	Indiana Pacers	111	102	11/15/19	-6.5	W	102
Houston Rockets	Los Angeles Clippers	102	93	11/13/19	-2.5	W	98
New Orleans Pelicans	Houston Rockets	116	122	11/11/19	-7.5	L	-100
Chicago Bulls	Houston Rockets	94	117	11/9/19	-6.5	W	88.5
Houston Rockets	Golden State Warriors	129	112	11/6/19	-16	W	95.2
Memphis Grizzlies	Houston Rockets	100	107	11/4/19	-5.5	W	88.5
Miami Heat	Houston Rockets	129	100	11/3/19	-3	L	-100
Brooklyn Nets	Houston Rockets	123	116	11/1/19	-4.5	L	-100
Washington Wizards	Houston Rockets	158	159	10/30/19	-8	L	-100
Houston Rockets	Oklahoma City Thunder	116	112	10/28/19	-10	L	-100
Houston Rockets	New Orleans Pelicans	126	123	10/26/19	-12	L	-100
Houston Rockets	Milwaukee Bucks	111	117	10/24/19	-1.5	L	-100
							-420.6

And how about on the moneyline?  Well that would be a little different but still not a great outcome for an investment of this length as the returns over this time period would have net you about $200, if you would have invested $100 on each trade. 

Home Team	Visitor Team	Home Score	Visitor Score	Event Date	Odds	Units Won
Portland Trail Blazers	Houston Rockets	125	112	1/29/20	-206	-100
Utah Jazz	Houston Rockets	117	126	1/27/20	857	857
Denver Nuggets	Houston Rockets	117	110	1/26/20	117	-100
Minnesota Timberwolves	Houston Rockets	124	131	1/24/20	-228	43.9
Houston Rockets	Denver Nuggets	121	105	1/22/20	-563	17.8
Houston Rockets	Oklahoma City Thunder	107	112	1/20/20	-324	-100
Houston Rockets	Los Angeles Lakers	115	124	1/18/20	-154	-100
Houston Rockets	Portland Trail Blazers	107	117	1/15/20	-364	-100
Memphis Grizzlies	Houston Rockets	121	110	1/14/20	-180	-100
Houston Rockets	Minnesota Timberwolves	139	109	1/11/20	-498	20.1
Oklahoma City Thunder	Houston Rockets	113	92	1/9/20	-161	-100
Atlanta Hawks	Houston Rockets	115	122	1/8/20	-315	31.7
Houston Rockets	Philadelphia 76ers	118	108	1/3/20	-183	54.6
Houston Rockets	Denver Nuggets	130	104	12/31/19	-252	39.7
New Orleans Pelicans	Houston Rockets	127	112	12/29/19	175	-100
Houston Rockets	Brooklyn Nets	108	98	12/28/19	-473	21.1
Golden State Warriors	Houston Rockets	116	104	12/25/19	-734	-100
Sacramento Kings	Houston Rockets	104	113	12/23/19	-251	39.8
Phoenix Suns	Houston Rockets	125	139	12/21/19	-413	24.2
Los Angeles Clippers	Houston Rockets	117	122	12/19/19	183	183
Houston Rockets	San Antonio Spurs	109	107	12/16/19	-560	17.9
Houston Rockets	Detroit Pistons	107	115	12/14/19	-341	-100
Orlando Magic	Houston Rockets	107	130	12/13/19	-275	36.4
Cleveland Cavaliers	Houston Rockets	110	116	12/11/19	-689	14.5
Houston Rockets	Sacramento Kings	118	119	12/9/19	-792	-100
Houston Rockets	Phoenix Suns	115	109	12/7/19	-690	14.5
Toronto Raptors	Houston Rockets	109	119	12/5/19	112	112
San Antonio Spurs	Houston Rockets	135	133	12/3/19	-289	-100
Houston Rockets	Atlanta Hawks	158	111	11/30/19	-1100	9.1
Houston Rockets	Miami Heat	117	108	11/27/19	-316	31.6
Houston Rockets	Dallas Mavericks	123	137	11/24/19	-230	-100
Los Angeles Clippers	Houston Rockets	122	119	11/22/19	175	-100
Denver Nuggets	Houston Rockets	105	95	11/20/19	100	-100
Houston Rockets	Portland Trail Blazers	132	108	11/18/19	-319	31.3
Minnesota Timberwolves	Houston Rockets	105	125	11/16/19	123	123
Houston Rockets	Indiana Pacers	111	102	11/15/19	-245	40.8
Houston Rockets	Los Angeles Clippers	102	93	11/13/19	-133	75.2
New Orleans Pelicans	Houston Rockets	116	122	11/11/19	-294	34
Chicago Bulls	Houston Rockets	94	117	11/9/19	-281	35.6
Houston Rockets	Golden State Warriors	129	112	11/6/19	-1729	5.8
Memphis Grizzlies	Houston Rockets	100	107	11/4/19	-235	42.6
Miami Heat	Houston Rockets	129	100	11/3/19	-148	-100
Brooklyn Nets	Houston Rockets	123	116	11/1/19	-183	-100
Washington Wizards	Houston Rockets	158	159	10/30/19	-326	30.7
Houston Rockets	Oklahoma City Thunder	116	112	10/28/19	-542	18.5
Houston Rockets	New Orleans Pelicans	126	123	10/26/19	-862	11.6
Houston Rockets	Milwaukee Bucks	111	117	10/24/19	-117	-100
						218

Conclusion

With the current stats of the Houston Rockets this season (2019/20) investing in Rockets may not be totally a good idea. When investing in sports it’s rarely a good idea to go into it looking at the shining stars that play for each team.  

As with all sports investing, analytics and back tested models show the best results we have seen so far.  For more information on this and a lot more, check out John Todora’s new book on sports investing; Zero Correlation Investing – The ScoreMetrics Secret to find out more!