Football is back, and we have win totals for you! How many games are teams projected to win this year? How do win totals work and is there value in investing in them?
Read on to find out.
What are win totals?
Win totals are futures investment opportunities where bookmakers set a line for the total wins a team will have during the season, and investors can then invest in the team going either over or under that number of wins.
If you are unfamiliar with the over/under, have a look at our article on investment methods in sports trading.
Win totals are popular among casual bettors because of the added excitement of following the teams you invested in all season. They are of course also indicative of what kind of seasons analysts are predicting for each team.
For smart sports traders looking for investment opportunities, it’s important to have a systematic approach and not to tie down too much money in the futures market. Many professionals utilize various predictive models and try to find value gaps (more on that later) where investing makes sense.
Win totals for every NFL team in 2020
Here’s a full list of win totals and odds for each team just before the start of the season:
Team | 2020 Win Total | OVER | UNDER | 2019 Win Total | 2019 Wins |
Baltimore Ravens | 11.5 | -115 | -115 | 8 | 14 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 11.5 | -145 | +115 | 10.5 | 12 |
New Orleans Saints | 10.5 | -115 | -115 | 10 | 13 |
San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | -125 | -105 | 8.5 | 13 |
Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | -155 | +125 | 9 | 8 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 9.5 | -125 | -105 | 10.5 | 9 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 9.5 | +110 | -140 | 9 | 8 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 9.5 | -140 | +110 | 6.5 | 7 |
Buffalo Bills | 9 | -140 | +110 | 7.5 | 10 |
Green Bay Packers | 9 | -125 | -105 | 9 | 13 |
Indianapolis Colts | 9 | -125 | -105 | 9.5 | 7 |
Los Angeles Rams | 9 | -105 | -125 | 10 | 9 |
Minnesota Vikings | 9 | -105 | -125 | 9 | 10 |
New England Patriots | 9 | -130 | +100 | 11.5 | 12 |
Seattle Seahawks | 9 | -140 | +110 | 8.5 | 11 |
Chicago Bears | 8.5 | -160 | +130 | 9 | 8 |
Cleveland Browns | 8.5 | -135 | +105 | 9 | 6 |
Tennessee Titans | 8.5 | -125 | -105 | 7.5 | 9 |
Arizona Cardinals | 7.5 | -120 | -110 | 7.5 | 5 |
Atlanta Falcons | 7.5 | -130 | +100 | 7.5 | 7 |
Denver Broncos | 7.5 | -130 | +100 | 7 | 7 |
Houston Texans | 7.5 | -120 | -110 | 8 | 10 |
Las Vegas Raiders | 7.5 | -105 | -125 | 6 | 7 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 7.5 | -130 | +100 | 10 | 5 |
New York Jets | 7 | +110 | -140 | 7.5 | 7 |
Detroit Lions | 6.5 | -130 | +100 | 7 | 3 |
Miami Dolphins | 6.5 | -110 | -120 | 4.5 | 5 |
New York Giants | 6.5 | +100 | -130 | 6 | 4 |
Carolina Panthers | 5.5 | -120 | -110 | 8 | 5 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 5.5 | -120 | -110 | 5.5 | 2 |
Washington Football Team | 5.5 | +100 | -130 | 6.5 | 3 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 4.5 | -120 | -110 | 7.5 | 6 |
Unsurprisingly, the pre-season favorites for the Super Bowl are also on top of the win totals list here. The Kansas City Chiefs (+600 to win the Super Bowl) and the Baltimore Ravens (+650 to lift the trophy) both sit at 11.5 wins for the total.
The Ravens have the easiest projected strength of schedule for the upcoming season, which also shows up in their win total. Tom Brady’s move from New England to Tampa Bay had a significant impact on the totals – the Buccaneers moved up from 7.5 to 9.5, while the Patriots’ line went down from 10.5 to 9.
On the other end of the table, the addition of the highly touted number one pick of the NFL Draft, QB Joe Burrow, has not moved the Cincinnati Bengals’ win total line up.
Finding value in win totals
The smart approach to the win totals market is to have a system in place that clearly calculates the expected value of the opportunities that are out there.
One could look for long-term patterns in historical data and try to find an edge there.
Another approach is to rely on predictive models for the upcoming season and try to find opportunities where there is a value gap between the line and the prediction. Bookmakers are naturally pretty decent at setting their lines, but on the other hand, the lines are also affected by public money and opportunities do arise every year.
Ask yourself this: is the value you’ve spotted here good enough so that you are willing to part with cash from your bankroll for the duration of the whole season, or are there better opportunities out there?
To take advantage of the return of sports and to learn everything you need to know about smart investing in the sports betting market, check out our head trader John Todora’s new book – “Zero Correlation Investing – The Score Metrics Secret”. It’s currently on sale for a limited time, so go get yours now!
The ScoreMetrics Lab is the engine that runs the Sports Trading System operation, consisting of a team of researchers and writers who are constantly testing and retesting algorithms. They work hand in hand with our Head Trader and Creator of ScoreMetrics, John Todora to help find new breakthroughs and develop new systems.
